Economic Forecast Spring 2025: Export crisis and political uncertainty weigh on German economy
The extent to which the German economy’s current problems are structural is demonstrated by the persistence of its weak growth: economic output continued to decline at the end of the year. German exports in particular have fallen sharply, especially deliveries to China. German ex-porters are now losing ground to China for the fourth year in a row. Weak foreign demand is contributing to a further decline in investment in equipment. However, there is also a lack of impetus from the domestic market: Low capacity utilization in many sectors of the economy and the alarmingly high level of uncertainty about the economic environment in Germany are causing companies to postpone investments. Only private consumption increased slightly at the end of the year.
Mar 13, 2025
World Economic Forecast Winter 2024: Global Economy Grows Moderately Amid High Political Uncertainty
The global economy maintained its solid growth trajectory this summer, driven primarily by the strong expansion in the USA. Global industrial production picked up significantly in spring and summer, particularly in Asia. Parallel to industrial production, global trade in goods also expanded noticeably until the summer. However, current data suggests that the upturn in industrial production and in global trade is unlikely to persist. Industrial production and global trade fell in September. The global purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing sector also suggests that the fundamental weakness in industry is continuing. The disinflation process has not progressed any further recently. Prices are rising sharply in the services sector, which is why core inflation excluding energy and food is stubbornly persistent.
Dec 14, 2024
Spring Forecast 2022: Renewed pressure delays economic recovery in Germany once more
GDP is expected to expand by 1.9% this year and for the coming year we expect GDP to increase by 2.7%. The further course of economic recovery depends to a large extent on the development of inflation. It is becoming apparent that inflation will only weaken gradually. For exam-ple, the price increases for some raw materials, such as crude oil, are now easing. How-ever, prices for gas, which private households have to pay, are likely to continue to rise sharply in the coming months. Overall, consumer prices are expected to rise by 6.9% on average this year.
Jun 15, 2022
Joint Economic Forecast Fall 2020: Recovery loses momentum -Economy and politics further under the signs of the pandemic
The forecast is a thorough analysis of the economic developments in Germany and the world.
Oct 14, 2020
Fall Forecast 2020: Global economy recovers from a historic collapse
The RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research latest economic forecast. After the worst recession since the second World War the global economy is on the path to recovery, yet much uncertainty remains. Due to the prolonged COVID-19 containment measures the rebound is weaker than the projection in the summer. While fresh outbreaks across several Euro Area member states dampen its recovery, the indicators show that the through of the crisis is likely over. Going forward we are in for the rebound for the long haul with economic activity expected to stabilize back to potential growth rates at the earliest towards the summer next year.
Sep 15, 2020
The effects of COVID-19 on the Italian economy
This is an excerpt from our [2020 spring economic forecast](https://www.rwi-essen.de/media/content/pages/publikationen/rwi-konjunkturberichte/rwi-kb_1-2020.pdf)
Mar 23, 2020
Economic development abroad: COVID-19 keeps the world economy in suspense
Spring RWI economic forecast
Mar 19, 2020