@article{Blagov2025,
  title = {Economic Knock-on Effects of {{Russia}}'s Geopolitical Risk on Advanced Economies: A {{Bayesian}} Global {{VAR}} Approach},
  shorttitle = {Economic Knock-on Effects of {{Russia}}'s Geopolitical Risk on Advanced Economies},
  author = {Blagov, Boris and Dirks, Maximilian Wilhelm and Funke, Michael},
  year = 2025,
  journal = {Macroeconomic Dynamics},
  volume = {29},
  pages = {e153},
  issn = {1365-1005, 1469-8056},
  doi = {10.1017/S1365100525100552},
  urldate = {2026-09-01},
  abstract = {Abstract             Using a Bayesian Global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geopolitical risk after Russia's invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European and Baltic countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices.},
  copyright = {https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/},
  langid = {english},
  file = {C:\Users\bblagov\Zotero\storage\X4D4MJ6Y\Blagov et al._2025_Economic knock-on effects of Russia’s geopolitical risk on advanced economies a Bayesian global VAR.pdf}
}