The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: a fresh look at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system

An estimated Markov-switching DSGE modeling framework that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent credibility of Hong Kong’s linked exchange rate system. The baseline model distinguishes two regimes with respect to the time-series properties of the risk premium. Regime-dependent impulse responses to macroeconomic shocks reveal substantial differences in spreads. To test the sensitivity of the results, a number of robustness checks are performed. The findings contribute to efforts at modeling exchange rate regime credibility as a nonlinear process with two distinct regimes.

Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia

Under a currency board, the central bank relinquishes control over its monetary policy and domestic interest rates converge towards the foreign rates. Nevertheless, a spread between both usually remains. This spread can be persistently positive due …