Welcome

I am an economist and a professional forecaster for RWI – Leibniz Institute of Economic Research in Essen, Germany at the division Macroeconomics and Public Finance.

I am part of the junior faculty of the Ruhr Graduate School of Economics and teach at the Jacobs University in Bremen and was part of the Chair of Monetary Policy and Financial Markets of Prof. Dr. Peter Anker at the University of Duisburg-Essen as an external lecturer.

On this page you will find my research, forecasts, replication codes, and teaching materials.

Interests

  • Applied Macroeconomics
  • Forecasting
  • Econometrics
  • Bayesian Methods
  • Teaching

Education

  • PhD in Economics, 2015

    Hamburg Graduate School of Economics at the University of Hamburg

  • MSc in Economics, 2011

    University of Bonn

  • BSc Economics and Management, 2008

    University of Magdeburg

Latest forecast

2020-09-15

Fall Forecast 2020: Global economy recovers from a historic collapse

The RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research latest economic forecast. After the worst recession since the second World War the global economy is on the path to recovery, yet much uncertainty remains. Due to the prolonged COVID-19 containtment measures the rebound is weaker than the projection in the summer. While fresh outbreaks across several Euro Area member states dampen its recovery, the indicators show that the through of the crisis is likely over. Going forward we are in for the rebound for the long haul with economic activity expected to stabilize back to potential growth rates at the earliest towards the summer next year.

See all

Research articles

Boris Blagov (2019). Exchange rate uncertainty and import prices in the euro. Review of International Economics, 27 (5): 1537-1572.

PDF Project Poster DOI

Boris Blagov, Michael Funke (2019). The regime-dependent evolution of credibility: a fresh look at Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. MacroDynamics.

PDF DOI

Boris Blagov (2018). Financial crises and time-varying risk premia in a small open economy: a Markov-switching DSGE model for Estonia. Empirical Economics, 54(3), pp 1017–1060.

PDF Project DOI Working paper

Boris Blagov, Michael Funke (2016). The credibility of Hong Kong's currency board system: looking through the prism of MS‐VAR models with time‐varying transition probabilities. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 78, pp. 895-914.

PDF Project DOI

Boris Blagov, Michael Funke, Richhild Moessner (2015). Modelling the time-variation in euro area lending spreads. BIS Working Papers.

PDF Slides

Projects

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All Policy Research Current Completed

Joint Economic Forecast 2016--2020

Bi-annual forecast for the German and the world economy prepared on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy

RWI Business Cycle Forecasts

Analyses of the German and the world economy.

Scientific advisory for the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology

Advisory for the German delegation in the EU Output gap working group

The macroeconomic effects of uncertainty

A collection of my economic research on uncertainty in international economic context

Blog

The effects of COVID-19 on the Italian economy

This is an excerpt from our 2020 spring economic forecast
Last updated on 2020-04-01 6 min read

Presenting at the Eighth Italian Congress of Econometrics and Empirical Economics

I will attend the ICEEE 2019 in Lecce, Italy and present on Friday, the 25-th. I have created a calendar file (.ics) with the program for easier navigating there.
2019-01-21 1 min read

Popular Topics

Completed conferences Current DSGE ECB Forecasts Interest rate pass-through International Economics Markov Switching Policy Policy work Research Stochastic volatility Uncertainty VAR